Survey: Asset managers anticipate global upturn, but remain cautious about Europe

70% of asset managers in Germany expect an economic upswing to take hold in 2026, according to the latest asset manager survey of over 50 investment firms by Universal Investment. Experts expect that growth will particularly be driven out of Asia. Almost 56% expect China to experience a boom next year and 45% believe that emerging markets more broadly (excluding China) will thrive.

While nearly half (48%) also predict the US economy to grow, this figure is significantly lower than last year, when 66% of the participants expected such a scenario. Similarly, it is evident that global growth will not be driven by Europe or its powerhouses, Germany and France. Half the experts expect stagnation in both countries and only around 4% of respondents expect improvement in France, compared to 22% who believe in an upswing in Germany. 

It is evident that perceptions of risk has changed significantly compared to last year's survey. While climate change and regulatory changes are no longer considered major risk factors, inflation (67%) and geopolitical tensions (69%) are now the main causes for concern. Conversely, the risk of war or terrorist attacks has fallen sharply from 12 months ago, down from 56% to 22%. A new concern has emerged with tariff conflicts in the US viewed as a major risk by half of respondents.

These assessments of opportunity and risk are reflected in asset managers’ recommendations on asset class and regions. As expected, equities from industrialised nations top the list with a share of around 44%. What stands out is the recommended allocation to cash and cash equivalents: At 8.1%, cash is almost on a par with gold and precious metals (8.5%), which have increased in weighting by just under one percentage point since last year. While over half of respondents anticipate a continued gold rally, nearly 40% remain skeptical.

Fixed Income allocations are lower than last year. Allocations to bonds from industrialised countries are expected to account for 18.4% of a portfolio (compared to 21.8% last year), those from emerging markets should account for 7.4% (compared to 5.5% last year). Real estate will make up for 8%, while private markets will play a minor role, accounting for just under 3%.

Europe and the US almost level in country weighting

At a country level across all asset classes, the US is once again in the lead with just under 37%, followed closely by Europe with almost 36%. Asia and emerging markets are in a unique position: Although asset managers expect strong economic growth in those parts of the world, allocations across all emerging countries and regions remain below 10%, Asia (excluding Japan and China) reaches around 9%.

For 2026, asset managers anticipate another year of interest rate cuts: 65% and 81% of the participants expect the ECB and the Fed respectively to lower interest rates, while 53% believe the Bank of England to announce further cuts. Meanwhile, nearly half expect that the Bank of Japan will raise rates slightly. All other base rate scenarios will play a rather minor role.

Infrastructure now among the top three thematic investments

Within thematic investments, five major themes are emerging: In line with last year, pharmaceuticals maintain the top spot, with 66%, followed closely by technology with 60%. Infrastructure (52%) has moved into third place, overtaking cybersecurity (46%). Artificial intelligence remains in the top five with 36%, while other thematic investments play a minor role. Renewable energies, in particular, have declined to just 8%. This is also reflected in responses to the question about how attitudes towards ESG investing among private investors will develop: only 2% anticipate an increase in demand, while 48% expect it to remain stable, and nearly half believe that demand will decline or collapse.

Despite expectations of heightened volatility in US markets, cited by 63% of respondents, confidence in the overall strenght of the US economy remains solid. A significant 84% see no reason to reallocate US investments to other regions.